This is a post relevant to the whole manga so far, but even more particularly to the current arc, seeing as it is one of the major reasons it’s very hard to be sure of anything when it comes to future developments.

Anyway, I love Lizzie but she’s hella complex and in my opinion, Yana is totally playing on that, which is obviously not helpful. xD An example, before I explain:

Before the Campania arc, we didn’t know “the real Lizzie” because we had no hint that Lizzie even had the slightest idea what the Watchdog duty was. We didn’t have the slightest idea either that she was as badass as she is.
Literally the first hint we got that something was up with her was when she reacted midly surprised to Ciel holding a gun to her face, more shocked that he’d point it at her than of the fact he was holding a gun in the first place.

This is what I mean by Lizzie’s ambivalence: her character can always be read in two completely opposite ways

and the reason for that is

because she was presented as having two radically different sides rather “late” in the story, compared to when she was first introduced.

The contrast between her naturally extremely cheerful personality (her love of cute things)…

and what she was taught by her mother (her badass side) was never foreshadowed until the Campania arc, but retrospectively, now that we know about it, it changes things. For example: 

• you can wonder if the attack on the manor during the circus arc really had Lizzie being clueless about the situation and not even wondering why a part of the manor had exploded during the night.
• you could even use this contrast to explain why her parents let her go alone to any party, especially to one held by Druitt, a rather popular womanizer (and also human trafficker, not that her parents had to know). 

This leads to one of the major differences between Ciel and Lizzie, narratively speaking: Ciel initially hardly knew anything about the Watchdog duty because Vincent died before he could teach him anything…

so he had to learn on his own, which is probably why everyone always notices when he fails to be a completely obedient doggy (even if what UT said about him being relatively different from his predecessors is probably another big reason). 

Meanwhile Lizzie had her mom by her side from the beginning, her mom who trained her to be as strong as the Watchdog’s wife needed to be in order to survive. And Frances factors heavily in this difference with Ciel because she herself used to be a Phantomhive. In other words…

these are what makes Lizzie the badass girl she is and, more precisely, her mother’s lessons are creating the ambivalence of her character, because without Frances’ teachings, the Lizzie we know would simply be the girl we saw until the Campania arc.

So the fact there was another side of her from the beginning and that Yana kept it completely hidden for a while (no foreshadowing at all when we know Sensei loves foreshadowing) could be a narrative choice made to be completely relevant to Lizzie’s role in the story.

To get back on the initial subject and to explain what I meant regarding the current arc, when you see Frances (who’s the one who taught Lizzie everything), do you think she’d even buy Bravat’s fortune-telling?

Personally I don’t think she would. 

Now, when it comes to Lizzie, what do you think?  Because there is a difference between enjoying a little vibe of mystery (who doesn’t like a deviner trying to guess stuff) and completely buying the words of a total stranger, especially when they seem to know about your fiancé who coincidentally happens to be the Queen’s Watchdog and an important target of the Underworld. 

And this is but one example of why the ambivalence of Lizzie’s character is such. a. pain. when it comes to the current arc, because you could argue that Lizzie’s reaction to Bravat’s “prediction” was genuine…

• we know she’s been worrying about Ciel hiding something big ever since the Easter chapter, which was in April and Liz met with Bravat in August
• she’s young and that’s the main difference with her mother who’s a grown adult and who experienced much more than her

…just like you could argue that Bravat’s words possibly frightened her because they were too accurate and, while Ed was yelling, she was busy wondering if Bravat was a possibly dangerous enemy (and in that case, the reason she went back to see him is because she wanted to evaluate just how much he knew about Ciel until, well, Bravat revealed something much more unexpected).

Another example would be:

Lizzie’s words to a sleeping real!Ciel in ch113. It’s something I remembered last week and that I shared with @thedarkestcrow​ because to this day we still can’t explain her words: What did she mean by “I can’t save you”? Why does she think that?? And save real!Ciel from whom or what???

There again, Yana making her character ambivalent is leading me to imagine two radically different possibilities:

1. she feels guilty about not being able to give him her blood to save his “radiance” => I’ve personally always found that idea so very stupid (and thus not like Lizzie) considering that she was born with her blood type and that it can’t be helped, buuut I guess the situation could be confusing and painful enough for her to be manipulated into thinking that she’s useless. 
2. she’s actually implying that she wanted to save real!Ciel from the sect, but it’s proving to be much harder than she expected (hence why she cries) and so she stays by his side, watching the sect killing people while she can only imagine why they brought back the twin and what they intend to make him do once he’ll be “ready”.
   In that case, it’s also no wonder Paula said she’s been constantly crying.

See what I mean? Lizzie’s ambivalent character is proving to be a major pain for the current arc, because we know she was raised by a woman who wouldn’t have taken two shits coming from the blue sect, but Lizzie is not her mother as she’s younger and more inexperienced than Frances.

So what we saw of Lizzie’s actions so far in the arc gives us two big interpretations as to what her role is supposed to be:

• was she manipulated by the blue sect to be an hostage to use against our!Ciel?
• it is the most popular take on her role for this arc: the sect baited her with the twin and she’s choosing his side over our!Ciel’s for the moment because she’s confused and pained by the truth facing her. 
• hence Bravat’s words in ch123, taunting Ciel with Lizzie’s choosing the twin over him. 
• or was she trying to double-cross them from the beginning (both for real!Ciel’s and our!Ciel’s sakes)?
• this part actually belongs to a bigger crack theory I discussed with @thedarkestcrow (with at least UT and Tanaka being involved in the same plan) but I’ll spare you otherwise this post will never end. xD
• simply it would imply that, from the moment she learnt about the twin, no matter how confused and pained she was, she didn’t choose him over our!Ciel, it’s just that she wants to save him from the sect and has to pretend to be on their side in order to do so.

TL;DR ¯_(ツ)_/¯ we can thank Yana for creating such an ambivalent character because she’s extremely interesting that way and also it’s making things extra hard for us when trying to understand what’s going on in the current arc. xDD

I know this subject can lead to controversy because some readers might want to argue that I’m reading too much into things (which is definitely a possibility) or that Yana is not good enough to imply so much through only Liz’s character though, so I’m ready to discuss the subject if anyone wants to share their thoughts. :))