Crack theory: the Phantomhive lineage is at the origin of the Watchdog duty
Very old idea related to ch103 & the GW arc overall that I never took the time to write.
Based on the fact that Claudia was most likely Vincent’s predecessor, which is implying that, when no more male heir available, using a woman from the Phantomhive family as the Watchdog was apparently a better alternative than giving the job to another nobleman loyal to the royal family.
@frederickabberline previously made a post explaining under which circumstances noble women could inherit anything, so it isn’t strange that Claudia was able to get that title. Still, the Watchdog position implies keeping control over the underworld, solving weird cases and cleaning up after the royal family, so it’s not exactly a normal position.
To keep it within a family specifically (the Phantomhives) could be a matter of keeping the Watchdog’s identity a secret, but…

…clearly ch132 and Vincent explain that, if no more heir, the whole thing goes back to the crown who decides who they’ll give it to next. So it’s probably Victoria who decided to give it to Claudia in the first place, allowing her to inherit despite being a woman (we don’t know when) and…

it’s also the Queen who decided that a 10 year old boy from the same family would receive that position.
So, assuming that the royal family intends on keeping the Watchdog duty as tightly related to the P family as possible, the question is why? Well, my answer for now would be the lineage thing.
Granted that we don’t know exactly what that lineage is yet, why it apparently has to be activated, etc, but it seems to at least have to do with being able to see/sense/detect supernatural beings. So far:
- Ciel managed to spot the Shinigamis in ch103 despite them being invisible to normal human eyes at the time
- there is a suspicion about Frances also being able to see through Seb’s human disguise (not saying she knows he’s a demon, but at least that he’s not human)
- the German Shinigamis said that “it runs in the family” so we can assume that it spans more than just two generations (so it’s most likely unrelated to whoever Cedric K. Ros- is)
And I’m of the opinion that it could probably be seen as useful if the royal family were to know about (and believe) it.
For now though, it’s hard to consider whether or not Victoria herself gave out hints that she might know about the lineage, because her absence of surprise towards Ciel’s report for the Weston arc could also be explained by John Brown most likely being supernatural and by her side, as many have guessed before.
The thing is, I find there is a possible analogy between the Watchdog’s duty

and Seb’s own situation as Ciel’s personal dog

Because Will basically said that a demon with a leash on (the contract & Seb’s own aesthetic) was better than free demons who would probably go around scavenging for souls that Shinigamis work hard to collect.
And it’s kinda the same if we’re considering that the Phantomhives are dogs to the royal family: putting a collar on them makes them less dangerous and more easy to keep under control (eventually hanging them with it if needs be, as UT pointed out), especially if what the royal family was originally interested in was how useful the Phantomhive lineage could be to them.
The other reason I came up with this theory is the Green Witch arc overall: again it’s just my opinion but, while the last part of the arc was really good, I have a few issues with the rest of it.
I explained here why but, to sum up: compared to all the other arcs, the fake supernatural settings (werewolves, witch, curse/magic, etc) are rather unrelated to the true subplot (German army researching war weapons using a young genius), which is unusual and makes it too convenient as a result.
That being said, since I like to believe that Sensei does things for a reason, I’ve been thinking that maybe the fake supernatural settings of the GW arc are supposed to be relevant elsewhere in the story, kinda like how the murders at manor arc ended up being used as an introduction to the war suplot.
So initially, looking at what Sieglinde believed to be the truth, you get this story…


and let’s just say that this is a situation that could have easily been applied to the Phantomhive family, if anyone ever found out that they were “gifted”.
Again, we don’t know what the lineage is or where it comes from, but if Ciel’s ancestors ended up being hunted as heretics
at some point
because of it, then similarly to Sieglinde’s story, who knows if they didn’t agree to a pact with the royal family (the Watchdog duty), in exchange for their protection?
That pact gave the royal family the huge advantage to get their own little gifted dogs, generations after generations, and to use that special lineage indirectly for themselves…

…as long as they kept a tight leash on this family.
I’m aware it might appear a little far-fetched, especially when we don’t know what the lineage
really
is about yet, but that’s why it’s a crack theory.
To be honest though, I can’t help but also wonder about the timing of the lineage thing’s introduction by Sensei: ch103 is right during the final part of the GW arc after all, so it could be a coincidence or narratively meaningful because the settings of the arc do have some sort of link to that lineage stuff. :))
Let me know if anything is unclear! As always thanks for reading!!


















